Why Is The Crypto Market Up Today?

The crypto market steadied on Tuesday, with TOTAL, the total market cap, near $2.17 trillion, up about 0.69% since yesterday’s low.

The rebound follows a red candle that rejected $2.20 trillion, on hopes cooler US inflation confirms a dovish turn. Still, the bounce looks fragile, with early gains fading as traders await Wednesday’s data.

1. Cooler Inflation Bets Draw Buyers to $2.16 Trillion

The pullback found a floor at $2.16 trillion, where dip-buyers stepped in. Prediction markets lean cool on Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), with Kalshi pricing July inflation at 3.3%, and a soft Producer Price Index (PPI) is due to follow. Cooler readings would revive rate-cut hopes and lift risk assets.

Kalshi markets are projecting inflation to cool in the next print, but a cone of uncertainty remains to the upside that has the potential to force the FOMC's hand in September.

Read our CPI preview here: https://t.co/3lcBtamjHy pic.twitter.com/59kHD9FK9Q

— Kalshi Research (@KalshiResearch) August 10, 2026

On the chart, $2.16 trillion is the line that matters. A break opens $2.12 trillion, then the key $2.09 trillion floor. If both prints cool, the market can reclaim $2.20 trillion toward $2.26 trillion.

• The Setup: Kalshi traders price July CPI at 3.3%, cooling from prior
• Current Floor: $2.16 trillion support absorbed Monday’s selloff
• The Upside: Cool CPI and PPI could reclaim $2.20 trillion

2. A Weak Jobs Report Keeps Rate-Cut Hopes Alive

The bounce also leans on soft labor data. July payrolls fell 23,000, below the 83,000 expected, and unemployment ticked to 4.1% only as the workforce shrank. Weaker hiring signals a cooling economy, nudging the Fed toward cuts, not hikes.

U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 23,000 jobs amid strain from the Iran war, unemployment dips to 4.1% https://t.co/tQCWK5cQhJ

— BNN Bloomberg (@BNNBloomberg) August 7, 2026

As a result, September rate-hike odds slid to about 40%, and the selloff met buyers, not a cascade. With that dovish backdrop, crypto leans on this week’s inflation prints for direction, while $2.16 trillion holds.

BREAKING: The odds of a September rate hike fall to 40% after the US economy unexpectedly posts its 3rd biggest monthly job loss since the pandemic in 2020.

Just days ago, markets saw at 70%+ chance of a September rate hike.

Gold prices are surging above $4,400/oz on the news. https://t.co/4zGaqMwgU8 pic.twitter.com/6YWWqmmEJV

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 7, 2026

Weak jobs give the Fed a reason to cut; a soft inflation print removes its reason not to. These two catalysts can trigger the next crypto market leg.

• The Miss: July payrolls fell 23,000 instead of gaining 83,000 as expected
• The Signal: Cooling jobs push the Fed toward cuts
• The Odds: September rate-hike bets dropped to about 40%

Coin Spotlight: Mantle (MNT)

Mantle (MNT) is a rare mover in a flat market, up about 6% at $0.45 and 13.5% on the week. Since mid-July it has traced a cup pattern, a rounded bottom that often precedes a breakout, and now presses the $0.45 neckline.

However, buy volume has faded since August 10, fitting a handle forming (cooldown) after the cup formation. A daily close above $0.45 could trigger a 17% run toward $0.53, while a pullback likely tests $0.43 support. The pattern weakens only below $0.40.

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A close above $0.45 opens the 17% move to $0.53, while losing $0.43 deepens the handle.

• The Pattern: A cup since mid-July, with a handle now forming
• The Trigger: A daily close above $0.45 opens a 17% run to $0.53
• Key Invalidation: A drop under $0.40 weakens the setup and a dip under $0.38 invalidates it