Wall Street freaked out Friday. VIX and bitcoin say the fear may fade Monday.

Seasonality also favors the VIX bears, and by extension stock market stability.

The VIX has declined in November in 25 of the last 36 years, with a median drop of 7.2%. From October end to the end of the year, VIX has fallen in 22 of 36 years, with a median decline of 9.4%.

Bitcoin remains above $80,000

Bitcoin isn’t flinching. It continues to trade above $80,000, comfortably within its recent choppy range, suggesting Friday’s risk aversion and VIX rise may not carry into Monday.

The bitcoin market has been more active over the weekend this year, especially on Sunday, as geopolitical flareups that began in early March keep investors on edge. That activity highlights bitcoin’s role as a always-on macro asset: When traditional markets are shut, traders use bitcoin to express their early read on global risk appetite.

Volmex's BVIV, the bitcoin volatility index, or the bitcoin VIX, slipped 1% on Friday to just under 40% and has barely moved since. BVIV shows the 30-day implied or expected volatility in bitcoin.

Bettors on the decentralized platform Polymarket aren't panicking either. They see just an 9% chance the AI bubble bursts this year as of this writing.

Past doesn’t guarantee future results

None of the above guarantees a stable Monday. Moreover, in seven of the 32 cases, the VIX kept climbing sharply on Monday, including in August 2015, February 2018 and August 2024.