96% of older Bitcoin being sent to exchanges is now underwater

Bitcoin's long-term holding cohort sent about 5,950 BTC to exchanges below estimated acquisition cost on Nov. 10. Underwater coins dominated this cohort's deposits, even as the volume arriving below cost fell from the previous day.

The loss-inflow series from analytics provider CoinGlass showed a 29.22% daily decline. Its total cohort inflows reached 6,182.67 BTC, including 232.72 BTC arriving above cost. Below-cost coins therefore accounted for about 96% of older-holder exchange deposits that day.

Loss-making deposits dominated this cohort's exchange arrivals despite the daily decline.

Gross inflows for one cohort, not all Bitcoin or net reserves. Exchange labels and estimated costs affect classification. Deposits do not establish sales.

Sources and evidence

Sources

1. CoinGlass: LTH deposits below cost
2. CoinGlass: LTH deposits above cost
3. CoinGlass: total LTH deposits

Supporting facts

• CoinGlass reports 5,949.9482 BTC in long-term-holder exchange inflows below estimated acquisition cost for November 10, 2026, down 29.22% from the previous day. [1]
• CoinGlass reports total long-term-holder exchange inflows of 6,182.6693 BTC and profitable inflows of 232.721 BTC for November 10, 2026. [3] [2]
• About 96% of Bitcoin's long-term-holder exchange inflows on November 10 were below estimated acquisition cost, based on CoinGlass's same-date loss and total inflow readings. [1] [3]
• CoinGlass defines the long-term exchange-inflow cohort around a 155-day holding boundary; the loss measure counts BTC deposited into identified exchanges below estimated acquisition cost, rather than dollar losses. [1]
• Below-cost exchange deposits can make older coins available for trading, but they may also serve collateral, custody or settlement purposes and do not establish that a sale occurred. [1] [3]

Method

Daily UTC CoinGlass inputs: loss 5,949.9482 BTC, profit 232.721 BTC, total 6,182.6693 BTC. Loss/total ×100 = 96.235912%, rounded to about 96%; bar uses the unrounded ratio. Displayed BTC rounds to two decimals. The 29.22% decline is provider-reported. Purpose branches encode no quantities.

Scope

Gross inflows for one cohort, not all Bitcoin or net reserves. Exchange labels and estimated costs affect classification. Deposits do not establish sales.

Infographic by CryptoSlate

The deposits represent potential trading supply under loss pressure, but transfers to exchanges do not establish completed sales.

CoinGlass defines the long-term cohort around a 155-day holding boundary. Its loss-inflow measure counts BTC sent to identified exchange addresses below estimated acquisition cost.

What older-coin spending shows

A separate profitability measure gives an earlier view of older-coin activity. CoinGlass reports a long-term-holder spent output profit ratio, or LTH-SOPR, of 0.82063 for Nov. 9, below the break-even level of 1.

The ratio compares the aggregate dollar value of older coins when spent with their value at creation. A reading below 1 means those spent coins moved at an aggregate loss. Unlike the deposit figures, this measure covers spending across the network.

Separate trading data also pointed to seller aggression. CryptoSlate reported on Nov. 10 that Glassnode's Nov. 9 snapshot showed higher spot turnover alongside negative spot cumulative volume delta. Negative spot cumulative volume delta means sell-initiated volume exceeded buy-initiated volume.

The next useful signals are whether below-cost deposit volume continues to fall and whether its share of cohort inflows declines. Nov. 10's smaller flow still carried a predominantly underwater mix, keeping potential supply pressure in focus.